Thank you to Jonathan Fearnley for his contribution to FSB,
All Credit for this piece goes to him so any queries you can contact Jonathan
on Twitter @JJFearnley
The Doyle/Unice decision
A couple of
years ago when Ben Bowns was with the Stingrays he missed a couple of games
while he was away with the GB squad. Greg Blais had been signed early in the
year as the team knew that this scenario was coming up and they'd need reliable
cover. I remember posing the question: How well does Blais have to play in this
weekend's games for Bowns not to get his place back?
It was a rhetorical
question. Of course Bowns was going to be the number one goalie. Even early on
in his Stingrays career he'd shown enough promise for the fans to know that he
was a certainty between the pipes.
Blais performed
admirably in the two games he played that weekend. A 4-2 home victory over
Coventry in the Challenge Cup helped put the Stingrays through and the Blaze
out. The next night Hull narrowly lost out 2-1 on the road in the SkyDome. 2
games, 4 goals against and a save percentage of .945 – Blais had more than done
his job.
Bowns was back
with the team 2 days later for their Tuesday night trip to Fife but was still
getting over the effects of international travel so he stayed on the bench
while Blais got the nod again. Fife won 4-3 and Bowns kept the starting job all
season after that, apart from another 2 games he missed while on GB duty. No
controversy, no decisions to be made. Bowns was still the number 1.
When Frank Doyle
was injured and Josh Unice was drafted in at short notice to cover for him the
expectation was that he'd be just that – cover. As soon as Doyle was fit he'd
be back in the team. After all, he was the number one goalie and we had a
season and a half, plus another 400 pro games, to base that judgement on. The
questions of how well Unice would have to play to keep the starting job never
really arose because it was so preposterous. How could a kid with 6
professional appearances possibly be better than Doyle? He's just a stop-gap.
As long as he's not a disaster and can keep us in the title race we'll all be
happy. Playing well enough to keep Doyle out of the team was never on the
cards.
He then went and
did this: 8 starts, 7 wins, GAA 1.71, SV% .933, 2 shutouts.
Suddenly, there
is a decision looming for Gerad Adams. If Frank Doyle is 100% fit does he come
back in or does Unice keep his place? He's certainly not done anything to
deserve losing it.
This question
was raised on Steeltalk and overwhelmingly the choice was Unice. The fans have
made up their mind. They want to go with the hot hand.
In the modern
era of sports fandom everything that happens is generally the best or worst
ever. There's no room for middle ground or considered opinion. That's just a
fault of our human memories. We're generally good at remembering famous things
from years ago but so many other things that happened between then and now just
can't be recalled. It means that when a player, like Dennis Rix did at
iceSheffield last Wednesday picks up the puck and takes it all the way for a
solo goal I called it one of the goals of the season. In truth, I can't be sure
whether it was or not. I can't actually recall any other goals like that from
this season. I can remember some from previous years, for and against the
Steelers, but my medium term memory is letting me down so I can't fairly
compare Rix's goal to others this season. It's not just true of goals – the
last save was the most incredible, the last refereeing performance was the
worst and the last girl to pass by on the concourse was the prettiest.
It's called recency bias and it's what sometimes prevents us from making proper
judgements. It can have major repercussions in the financial industry. How a
stock has done recently isn't always an indication of how it will do in the
future. Good stockbrokers know this; inexperienced ones don't and are left
wondering why that share price didn't keep rising. Taking a few steps back and
looking at overall trends, the bigger picture, so to speak, will allow you to
make a more considered decision.
A few weeks ago
the Nottingham Panthers were in a similar situation to the one the Steelers
face now. Craig Kowalski had come back for a game in November after nearly a
month out but was then out for another 6 weeks. Mattias Modig had been his
replacement and had performed admirably. Earlier I showed how well Unice had
done in his first 8 games. Modig's GAA and SV% are even better.
GAA 1.61, SV%
.948, 1 shutout.
Last season when
Kowalski got injured Neil Conway came in and wasn't at the same level. The
Panthers season was derailed and they never recovered. They were closer in
points to the last place team than to the league champions, closer to missing
the playoffs than to the Steelers. In contrast, Modig's initial performances
had kept the Panthers in the title race and given Corey Neilson a decision to
make.
He had a
Challenge Cup 2nd leg at home to give Kowalski a bit of ice
time, ease him back in and test out his fitness. This isn't a luxury that Gerad
Adams has this week. It's the first leg of a cup semi-final. There is no 5 goal
cushion already in place. If he's going to go with Doyle he has to know that
he's completely ready. Too often in recent years the Steelers have lost the
home leg to the Panthers, leaving themselves too much to do at the NIC.
He could wait
for Saturday and the Coventry Blaze but that game doesn't look like the
formality it might have done a few weeks ago. It didn't matter that the
Panthers lost that 2nd leg at home to Fife. It would put a huge
dent in the Steelers title ambitions if they didn't take 2 points at home
against the Blaze.
There are fans who say the job is Unice's to lose and that he should stay
between the pipes unless he has a couple of bad games. That's normally how
you'd expect a goalie tandem to work, going with the form player. The problem
for the Steelers is that 2 defeats could put them out of the Challenge Cup and
give them an even steeper uphill task in the league. By that point even the
return of a fit Frank Doyle might not be able to save the day.
The issue of the
'hot hand' is another factor that needs delving into a little deeper. Just like
our stockbrokers earlier, what has happened most recently isn't always a
reliable indicator of what's going to happen next. The very nature of the
phrase 'hot hand' is suggesting that a cooling down is imminently due.
That's not entirely true. Just because a goalie has had a few good games in a
row doesn't mean it's all going to come crashing down in their next outing. It
also doesn't mean the great run is definitely going to keep going forever.
Unice has very
little pro experience to call upon but his junior numbers suggest he is a good
goalie and that he's certainly capable of being a top netminder in the EIHL,
but can he really maintain a .933 SV% and 1.71 GAA for the rest of the season?
That would be a Christian Bronsard-level performance, better than Jody Lehman
and pretty much every other goalie in league history. I'm not saying that Unice
isn't capable of it but I'm inclined to think that a drop off in form is more
probable.
Remember how
good Mattias Modig's first 8 games were? Well, here's how he's done in his 18
games since: GAA 3.06, SV% .902
Overall Modig
now has a GAA of 2.60 and a SV% of .917. Those stats are a fair reflection of
his performances and his status as a bona fide top class goalie at this level.
Do you think it's more likely that Unice's stats will end up similar to these
or stay at their current rate?
It's very
possible that the Steelers could win some high scoring games and Unice will
still win despite his numbers taking a hit. It's also possible that conceding
3, 4 or more (like Modig has in 5 of his 6 games since Kowalski came back) will
be too much for the offense to overcome.
Kowalski has
also had 6 starts following that recovery appearance against Fife: GAA 1.5, SV%
.953, 5 wins, 3 shutouts. That's 4 more wins, 5% more saves and 2 goals per
game fewer against. I'd say he was back to his best. Will that level of form
continue? Probably not but I'd still say that Kowalski is a better goalie than
Modig. I also think that Corey Neilson will come to that conclusion too.
If Doyle isn't fit then then there's no choice to make. Sheffield don't have
the luxury of a throwaway game to get him back up to match sharpness. Adams
will know how he's been performing in training and will be making a much more
informed decision than any of us can from the outside.
The verdict on
Adams' choice, however, will be entirely based on the results.
Doyle returns –
Steelers win: Of course they did. He's the number one goalie.
Doyle returns –
Steelers lose: Doyle shouldn't have been brought back. Should have stuck with
the form goalie.
Unice starts – Steelers win: Of course they did. He's the form goalie.
Unice starts –
Steelers lose: Doyle should have been brought back. He's the number one goalie.
It not as clear
cut as that by any means but that's what the fans will say. It's too difficult
sometimes to separate performance from results in the passion of a race for
trophies. It's also difficult to separate form from talent.
I'm just always a little concerned by goalies who get off to hot starts. Brian
Stewart had a SV% of .944 and 2 shutouts from his first 8 games of the season.
Would you have traded Doyle for him after 8 games of this season? Would you
have traded Doyle for Modig in November?
If you wouldn't, then why would you play Unice ahead of Doyle now?
Thanks for reading guys. If you want to get involved
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comment:-
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