To Hull And Back - The Doyle/Unice decision

Thank you to Jonathan Fearnley for his contribution to FSB, All Credit for this piece goes to him so any queries you can contact Jonathan on Twitter @JJFearnley

The Doyle/Unice decision

A couple of years ago when Ben Bowns was with the Stingrays he missed a couple of games while he was away with the GB squad. Greg Blais had been signed early in the year as the team knew that this scenario was coming up and they'd need reliable cover. I remember posing the question: How well does Blais have to play in this weekend's games for Bowns not to get his place back?

It was a rhetorical question. Of course Bowns was going to be the number one goalie. Even early on in his Stingrays career he'd shown enough promise for the fans to know that he was a certainty between the pipes.

Blais performed admirably in the two games he played that weekend. A 4-2 home victory over Coventry in the Challenge Cup helped put the Stingrays through and the Blaze out. The next night Hull narrowly lost out 2-1 on the road in the SkyDome. 2 games, 4 goals against and a save percentage of .945 – Blais had more than done his job.

Bowns was back with the team 2 days later for their Tuesday night trip to Fife but was still getting over the effects of international travel so he stayed on the bench while Blais got the nod again. Fife won 4-3 and Bowns kept the starting job all season after that, apart from another 2 games he missed while on GB duty. No controversy, no decisions to be made. Bowns was still the number 1.

When Frank Doyle was injured and Josh Unice was drafted in at short notice to cover for him the expectation was that he'd be just that – cover. As soon as Doyle was fit he'd be back in the team. After all, he was the number one goalie and we had a season and a half, plus another 400 pro games, to base that judgement on. The questions of how well Unice would have to play to keep the starting job never really arose because it was so preposterous. How could a kid with 6 professional appearances possibly be better than Doyle? He's just a stop-gap. As long as he's not a disaster and can keep us in the title race we'll all be happy. Playing well enough to keep Doyle out of the team was never on the cards.

He then went and did this: 8 starts, 7 wins, GAA 1.71, SV% .933, 2 shutouts.

Suddenly, there is a decision looming for Gerad Adams. If Frank Doyle is 100% fit does he come back in or does Unice keep his place? He's certainly not done anything to deserve losing it.

This question was raised on Steeltalk and overwhelmingly the choice was Unice. The fans have made up their mind. They want to go with the hot hand.

In the modern era of sports fandom everything that happens is generally the best or worst ever. There's no room for middle ground or considered opinion. That's just a fault of our human memories. We're generally good at remembering famous things from years ago but so many other things that happened between then and now just can't be recalled. It means that when a player, like Dennis Rix did at iceSheffield last Wednesday picks up the puck and takes it all the way for a solo goal I called it one of the goals of the season. In truth, I can't be sure whether it was or not. I can't actually recall any other goals like that from this season. I can remember some from previous years, for and against the Steelers, but my medium term memory is letting me down so I can't fairly compare Rix's goal to others this season. It's not just true of goals – the last save was the most incredible, the last refereeing performance was the worst and the last girl to pass by on the concourse was the prettiest.

It's called recency bias and it's what sometimes prevents us from making proper judgements. It can have major repercussions in the financial industry. How a stock has done recently isn't always an indication of how it will do in the future. Good stockbrokers know this; inexperienced ones don't and are left wondering why that share price didn't keep rising. Taking a few steps back and looking at overall trends, the bigger picture, so to speak, will allow you to make a more considered decision.

A few weeks ago the Nottingham Panthers were in a similar situation to the one the Steelers face now. Craig Kowalski had come back for a game in November after nearly a month out but was then out for another 6 weeks. Mattias Modig had been his replacement and had performed admirably. Earlier I showed how well Unice had done in his first 8 games. Modig's GAA and SV% are even better.

GAA 1.61, SV% .948, 1 shutout.

Last season when Kowalski got injured Neil Conway came in and wasn't at the same level. The Panthers season was derailed and they never recovered. They were closer in points to the last place team than to the league champions, closer to missing the playoffs than to the Steelers. In contrast, Modig's initial performances had kept the Panthers in the title race and given Corey Neilson a decision to make.

He had a Challenge Cup 2^nd leg at home to give Kowalski a bit of ice time, ease him back in and test out his fitness. This isn't a luxury that Gerad Adams has this week. It's the first leg of a cup semi-final. There is no 5 goal cushion already in place. If he's going to go with Doyle he has to know that he's completely ready. Too often in recent years the Steelers have lost the home leg to the Panthers, leaving themselves too much to do at the NIC.

He could wait for Saturday and the Coventry Blaze but that game doesn't look like the formality it might have done a few weeks ago. It didn't matter that the Panthers lost that 2^nd leg at home to Fife. It would put a huge dent in the Steelers title ambitions if they didn't take 2 points at home against the Blaze.

There are fans who say the job is Unice's to lose and that he should stay between the pipes unless he has a couple of bad games. That's normally how you'd expect a goalie tandem to work, going with the form player. The problem for the Steelers is that 2 defeats could put them out of the Challenge Cup and give them an even steeper uphill task in the league. By that point even the return of a fit Frank Doyle might not be able to save the day.

The issue of the 'hot hand' is another factor that needs delving into a little deeper. Just like our stockbrokers earlier, what has happened most recently isn't always a reliable indicator of what's going to happen next. The very nature of the phrase 'hot hand' is suggesting that a cooling down is imminently due.

That's not entirely true. Just because a goalie has had a few good games in a row doesn't mean it's all going to come crashing down in their next outing. It also doesn't mean the great run is definitely going to keep going forever.

Unice has very little pro experience to call upon but his junior numbers suggest he is a good goalie and that he's certainly capable of being a top netminder in the EIHL, but can he really maintain a .933 SV% and 1.71 GAA for the rest of the season? That would be a Christian Bronsard-level performance, better than Jody Lehman and pretty much every other goalie in league history. I'm not saying that Unice isn't capable of it but I'm inclined to think that a drop off in form is more probable.

Remember how good Mattias Modig's first 8 games were? Well, here's how he's done in his 18 games since: GAA 3.06, SV% .902

Overall Modig now has a GAA of 2.60 and a SV% of .917. Those stats are a fair reflection of his performances and his status as a bona fide top class goalie at this level. Do you think it's more likely that Unice's stats will end up similar to these or stay at their current rate?

It's very possible that the Steelers could win some high scoring games and Unice will still win despite his numbers taking a hit. It's also possible that conceding 3, 4 or more (like Modig has in 5 of his 6 games since Kowalski came back) will be too much for the offense to overcome.

Kowalski has also had 6 starts following that recovery appearance against Fife: GAA 1.5, SV% .953, 5 wins, 3 shutouts. That's 4 more wins, 5% more saves and 2 goals per game fewer against. I'd say he was back to his best. Will that level of form continue? Probably not but I'd still say that Kowalski is a better goalie than Modig. I also think that Corey Neilson will come to that conclusion too.

If Doyle isn't fit then then there's no choice to make. Sheffield don't have the luxury of a throwaway game to get him back up to match sharpness. Adams will know how he's been performing in training and will be making a much more informed decision than any of us can from the outside.

The verdict on Adams' choice, however, will be entirely based on the results.

Doyle returns – Steelers win: Of course they did. He's the number one goalie.

Doyle returns – Steelers lose: Doyle shouldn't have been brought back. Should have stuck with the form goalie.

Unice starts – Steelers win: Of course they did. He's the form goalie.

Unice starts – Steelers lose: Doyle should have been brought back. He's the number one goalie.

It not as clear cut as that by any means but that's what the fans will say. It's too difficult sometimes to separate performance from results in the passion of a race for trophies. It's also difficult to separate form from talent.

I'm just always a little concerned by goalies who get off to hot starts. Brian Stewart had a SV% of .944 and 2 shutouts from his first 8 games of the season. Would you have traded Doyle for him after 8 games of this season? Would you have traded Doyle for Modig in November?

If you wouldn't, then why would you play Unice ahead of Doyle now?

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