Will we race to 75? - A couple more than the normal five things I learnt this week.

(Might be more than five this week!!)

After unexpectedly having a hockey-free weekend I've been digging around in the league tables to bring you some statistical things this week. Here's where we are as at mid-day on Sunday 26th February, with teams variously having between 8 and 12 games left:

League table, showing total points, then in-conference, then outside-conference performance - notice the difference?

1. EIHL Title heading to down to Wales? – Common sense suggests Cardiff will hold most of their current six-point gap, and win the league with a couple of weeks spare. I’d go so far to say that they will even extend the gap beyond six-points as they’ve got more games remaining against teams from the easier conference. My model predicts them adding another 13 points from the remaining 16 available, and ending on 82 points, and Sheffield finishing second on 74. (Well up on the 72 that won the league last year and 74 that won it the year before)
2. What could stop them? – The focus must be on the two games Cardiff play in Sheffield, and the two final games in IAW against Belfast. If by some miracle they lose all four of those in regulation, and then we see one shock result from one of the four games against Manchester, Fife, Edinburgh or Dundee, they still close on 75 points. (Just 6 points from the 16 they have remaining – whereas they’re running at closer to 12 in the season-to-date)
3. Can Sheffield exceed 75 points? – To reach 76 points, we need 13 points from the remaining 16. That means winning twice in regulation against Cardiff, then probably needing to beat Fife, Coventry (twice), Braehead and then getting three points from away games in Nottingham and Belfast. Possible, but not probable, and as soon at 75 points becomes unreachable we’re sunk.
4. Can Belfast get to 76 points? – Not likely, as they’d need 14 points out of the remaining 16, most of which are in-conference games. That would require a double, in regulation, on the last weekend in IAW, beating Sheffield at home, dropping a maximum of two points in their three remaining games against Nottingham, and having to beat Coventry and Manchester too. They’re running at 64% in-conference so far in the league, so a target of 86% (12 from 14) would be huge.  
5. Easier conference 'up north' – Statistically proven beyond doubt again I’m afraid. Every Erdhart team has a better record cross-conference, than they do in-conference, and every Gardiner team (with the exception of Fife) wins more in-conference than they do cross-conference. Everyone except Fife finds it easier beating Gardiner teams than Erhardt teams!
6. Value of the conference bias – At least we don't need our * asterisks this year, but if we removed the imbalance between conference games, Braehead would lose about 10 points (because they are so poor cross-conference) and they would tumble from their current 4th place to 6th-7th below Fife by season-end! Another pointless banner in their rafters.
7. What about the play-off run-in too? – That’s a tastier battle entirely. My model has the ‘top six’ and ‘bottom one’ finishing roughly ‘as is’. Then Dundee gaining 7 points from 8 games to finish on 43, and Coventry gaining only 5 points from 6 games to finish in ninth place on 42. Coventry are terrible in-conference this year, so they need to shock someone and get more than one point from Belfast or Sheffield (twice) to save their season. Dundee’s six remaining in-conference games (and two cross-conference) gives them enough chance to just pip them.
8. Final word for Edinburgh – Let’s add a quick mention for Edinburgh, who are currently on 31 points, and maybe on-track for 38 this year. Compare that to 25 last year and you can see the bounce. It's still tenth, but it's respectable.

So if Cardiff flunk they will finish on 75 points, and if Sheffield or Belfast have run almost perfect, including winning their games against Cardiff in regulation, then they might just reach 76. So it’s still game-on, but it’s looking increasingly likely that Cardiff will win their first ever EIHL title, and their first league title for 20 years! At the bottom Coventry might drop one place from last year, and thus fail to make the play-off quarter finals for their first time. Looks like we will have another record-breaking season one-way or another!

Enjoy your hockey. Tony.