Jonathan Fearnley has seen most of the league already this season, in his role as webcast commentator for both the Steelers and the Hull Stingrays.
Here, he looks at how even the league is this year, and how good starts could count for nothing.
The “easy 2 points” might not be where you think they are (if they even exist anymore).
At this point of the season it’s really difficult to judge just how good everyone is. Most teams have injury problems already, some have played more Challenge Cup games than league games, some more league than cup and the tables don’t necessarily offer a true reflection of the talent levels. They probably won’t for another month or two.
Still, there are some teams who are exceeding expectations, some who are meeting them and some who are falling short. That’s where the arguments start. Lose a game early in the season the fans think you should win and Twitter and the forums become a no-go area for the level-headed, wait-and-see supporters.
Last season Coventry, Nottingham, Sheffield, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Hull, Fife and Braehead all lost their first visit of the season to Dundee. That’s everyone in the league expect Belfast beaten at the DIA before the end of October. At the time the reaction from the opposing fans was “I can’t believe we lost to Dundee!” A few months later and teams were happy to come away from their future trips with anything at all. Expectations had changed.
Remember when it was really difficult to win in Cardiff? In 2010/12 and 2011/12 they were 51-12-1 at home, a better record than anyone else over that time span. Over the next 2 seasons they were 32-30-1. That’s fewer home wins than any team in the league except Edinburgh. Cardiff away over the last 2 seasons has been one of the easiest road games you can have. Sometimes, things can change quite quickly.
Are they back to their unbeatable best this season? 4-1 is a good start, but they started the 12/13 season strongly at home before falling off a cliff and winning only 3 after Christmas.
Teams get better, teams get worse. It’s impossible to judge at this stage of the season who will actually be any good. Maybe the league is more balanced than ever. Maybe there won’t be a runaway league leader or doormat. Maybe everyone is finishing the season on 63 points.
Making judgements solely on merit is difficult because of our biases and preconceptions. We all feel our team should beat those ‘worse’ than us and cause great upsets against the bigger teams. It’s very difficult to shake off a loss to anyone but when it is a team perceived as weaker the knives come out. The thing is, we don’t really know if the opposition really is weaker. It took a long time for people to realise what Dundee were doing last year wasn’t a short term fluke. People were still going to Cardiff last season thinking it would be as tough as it used to be.
We won’t know for another month or two what the running order will be for this season. We may still not know even then. More than ever, the Elite League is unpredictable.
There have been moments in the past that have hinted towards this change. When Edinburgh beat Sheffield at iceSheffield in December 2012 it was an infuriating loss for the Steelers. I remember being infuriated that we’d thrown points away at home, especially to Edinburgh. 4 days later the Caps won in Nottingham and Panthers fans everywhere were no longer laughing, instead they were sharing the same sentiments as the Steelers supporters.
As angry as those defeats can make you feel sometimes, I don’t long for the days of walkover wins. Sheffield’s 3 home games v Newcastle in 2010/11 finished 8-0, 8-0 and 9-0. Against Edinburgh it was 8-0, 7-5 and 18-1. Where’s the fun in that? I always want to see my team win, of course I do but the lopsided wins don’t do anyone any favours. The blowout wins do still happen but they are enjoyable because they are unexpected. I loved seeing the Steelers beat the Flyers 8-1 a few weeks ago because after a shootout win against Fife the night before a hammering didn’t really seem on the cards. Heading to that final game with Newcastle, a big win was inevitable. Sheffield knew it, Newcastle knew it, the crowd knew it. It was a procession with no edge to it.
Any type of game can break out at any time in the Elite League right now. Hull’s two home games against Braehead have finished 6-8 and 0-2. What will the score be next time? Nobody knows. That’s what makes the league so good right now. You don’t know what is going to happen on any given night. Nottingham 1-6 Hull and Belfast 1-6 Fife on consecutive nights would have been unthinkable even a couple of years ago. Now, it’s brushed off by a lot of people. It’s much easier to justify those results than it ever used to be.
For me, that’s why some people just need to calm down a bit about their team’s starts. We don’t know how good anyone really is right now. Results that seem shocking now may be commonplace by the season’s end. If your team isn’t meeting your expectations for them don’t despair. Not everyone can achieve everything they want to. If someone wins, someone else has to lose.
But when you go to a game now, more so than ever before, you have no idea which team is going to win and which is going to lose. It doesn't make losing hurt less but it does make it easier to look forward to the next game.
Find Jonathan on Twitter @JJFearnley
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