Steelers vs Stingrays Preview By Jonathan Fearnley (@JJFearnley)
The Hull Stingrays have never beaten the Sheffield Steelers in the Challenge Cup. They’ve made it out of the group stage in each of the last 2 seasons but haven’t taken any points off the Steelers along the way. Hull’s need for points is probably greater than Sheffield’s given the current standings but defeat isn’t too problematic for either team. Sheffield are almost certainly through anyway and Hull will still have 6 more games left after this one.
If Hull are going to make it through then there’s a real chance that it could be at the expense of the Panthers. Nottingham have only one game left and it is in Hull. If the Stingrays win that then they are likely to finish above the Panthers and the holders might be losing their grip on the Challenge Cup sooner than anyone thought possible at the start of the season.
One of the reasons that scenario is in play is because Hull won their Challenge Cup (and doubled up with the league) fixture in Nottingham last month 6-1. Hull’s home form has been dreadful – 0 points from 5 games – but on the road they have taken something from every game and that sets this fixture up perfectly.
Sheffield will expect to win. The top line of Fretter-Forney-Roy has been difficult for anyone to stop and the Stingrays in particular are not built to stop a unit like that. They have chosen to build 3 equal lines, all capable of playing at both ends of the ice. It means they can score at any time but can be overmatched at others. If the Stingrays can keep the FFR line off the scoreboard their chances of victory greatly increase.
By extension, how the Steelers 2nd and 3rd units cope with everyone Hull has to offer is key for them. Scoring talent is spread around the Stingrays roster and with 5 different forwards averaging a goal every other game or better so far there’s no key man or line to target. That list of scoring talent doesn’t include Dominic Osman right now. He has a proven track record in the EIHL of being a 20+ goal forward but the injury (broken arm) to player/coach Omar Pacha means he is filling in on defence at the moment.
Stingrays captain Matty Davies doesn’t score many goals but he provides more than most. Expect him to see a lot of the puck, especially behind the goal, trying to feed dangerous passes to waiting forwards.
Frank Doyle is on the 2nd year of his university course and has started the year in the same fine form we saw in last season’s playoffs. David Brown has just started his two year programme and has had more downs than ups so far. It’s clear that there is talent there because his road performances have earned the team points and the home defeats can’t solely be pinned on him by any means. However there is a feeling there’s more to come from him. It’s certainly possible that the defence could come to his aid more often than they have at times but he does have some doubters to prove wrong.
The Steelers powerplay had a better showing against the Panthers, scoring twice and pushing their success rate over 10% for the first time this season. With the top line doing so well 5-on-5 it seems to be just a matter of time, and the odd minor adjustment, before the percentage approaches 20.
The Stingrays woes on the powerplay have been even more pronounced. 3 from 50 is a very disappointing return and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve won any games with a showing like this. Last season their powerplay was the best in the league and Pacha has set high standards for his special teams units. With the penalty kill also ranked last it might be more than minor adjustments that are needed. The return of Pacha (21 assists on the powerplay last season) will certainly help but that killer instinct provided by Tendler and Doucet last season somehow needs to be replicated.
It might suit Sheffield to play this game more like a road game. If they attack in numbers they will leave themselves vulnerable to the Stingrays speed on the break. Neutral zone turnovers must be kept to a minimum because all of the Stingrays forwards have the speed and talent to make the Steelers pay. How the Stingrays do on the breakaways and odd-man rushes might determine this game. If the Steelers can get out in front early and force the Stingrays to chase the game then the tables are turned and it’s Sheffield who can use their speed on the counter.
History suggests the Steelers will win tonight, but history also suggested they’d win that playoff game at iceSheffield in 2012. This has been an Elite League season where anything can happen so although a home win is the most likely outcome, the way this Stingrays team has played on the road so far it doesn’t have the same certainty that Sheffield’s 11 previous Challenge Cup wins over Hull had.
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